If you love snow, this may be a winter of discontent

Dreaming of a warm Christmas?

This might be the year to put away the parkas and break out the shorts.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says most of the U.S., including Texas, will have higher-than-normal temperatures from December to February.

For Texas, that could mean an end to wetter-than-normal conditions that have been present for much of the year. But forecasters caution that these long-range predictions are an inexact science.

"It wouldn't surprise me if we're warmer than normal, but I don't think you can rule out some winter events," said Steve Fano, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. "I think people need to remember that these forecasts are painted with a very broad brush over a three-month period."

Still, there are some disturbing signs.

The first week of October set records for the average temperature and the warmest overnight low temperature at Dallas/Fort Worth Airport.

Rainfall, which is still 16.71 inches above normal for the year, has slowed to trickle this month. Only 0.24 inch of rain has been recorded at D/FW this month. Average rainfall for October is 4.11 inches.

"If it doesn't rain over the next two or three weeks, we're going to start losing our big lead on rainfall for the year," Fano said.

State climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said the long-range forecasts are consistent with what Texas would see in a La Niña year. Whether it means Texas is going back into a prolonged drought isn't clear. "We've been going through these periods over the last decade where we have one or two years of wet weather followed by one or two years of dry weather, so it wouldn't be surprising if next year turned out to be a dry year," Nielsen-Gammon said. "But other than a drier-than-normal winter, there's nothing to indicate we're headed that way."

The good news is that North Texas is expected to get seasonal cold fronts that bring more comfortable conditions to the region. But with the exception of a chance of rain on Sunday, it should remain dry.

That troubles firefighters, who are worried about wildfires in the southern U.S. this winter. Parts of the Southeast have been facing a major drought all summer, but some parts of East Texas aren't far behind. Firefighters from across the U.S. plan to meet via teleconference today to discuss the potential threat.

"I think we'll be hurting in East Texas if we don't get rain during the next two weeks, and if we go without rain for the next four weeks in North Texas we're going to be facing serious problems here as well," said Traci Weaver, spokeswoman for the Texas Forest Service.

Star-Telegram.com | 10/10/2007 | If you love snow, this may be a winter of discontent

Looks like no Frosty this year. Guess we'll just have to order the set of snowmen on that video I posted a few days ago.